Exploratory Scenario Planning

Exploratory Scenario Planning is emerging as a useful tool in planning under conditions of deep uncertainty and change. The technique involves the development of a series of alternate, plausible futures that respond to driving forces of change and trends affecting the landscape – ranging from climate change, to population growth and other demographic changes, and changes in the economic use of land over time.

Trainings

In March of 2014, the Sonoran Institute’s Western Lands & Communities Program hosted a webinar for the Large Landscape Conservation Practitioners’ Network membership on how exploratory scenario planning might be applied to large landscape conservation initiatives.

Webinar: Scenario Planning and Climate Change

Sonoran Institute Webinar: Scenario Planning Webinar

Resources

“The Art of the Long View”, Schwartz, 1996

“Engaging the Future”, Hopkins and Zapata, 2007

“Opening Access to Scenario Planning Tools”, Holway et al, 2012

Global Business Network

Local Communities Adapting to Climate Change

Stephen Aldrich, bio-era LLC

Advanced Scenario Analysis: Tools for Enhancing Social Resiliency – Evaluating Advanced Scenario Analysis in Regional Growth Visioning, Raymond Quay, ASU PhD Dissertation

Responding to Change and Uncertainty Workshop (2012)